Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 11, 2026 at 12:02:31
Multiple news reports indicate USD fell against majors, with softer-than-expected retail sales data and cautious sentiment ahead of key jobs/inflation data. Economic calendar shows mixed US data (ISM Manufacturing PMI beat but ADP employment missed, jobless claims rose).
European shares mostly lower with mixed earnings, but Eurozone investor confidence showed strength. Economic data shows German factory orders surged 7.8% vs -4.2% forecast, but retail sales disappointed (-0.5% vs 0.2% expected). ECB held rates steady.
Yen strengthened following Prime Minister Takaichi's election victory and foreign inflows into Japanese stocks. Japanese market surged 5% with strong performance. Economic data shows household spending weaker than expected but foreign bond investment surged.
BoE held rates steady with unchanged vote. Housing data mixed (Nationwide prices beat, Halifax prices beat). Economic calendar shows modest positive housing indicators but broader UK sentiment cautious.
Commodity currencies rose with AUD strengthening. Australian market sharply higher, RBA held rates at 3.85%. Trade balance beat expectations (3.37B vs 4.9B forecast). Commodity prices YoY improved to 2.6% from -3.8% previous.
Commodity currencies rose with CAD strengthening. Canadian market extended gains, mining stocks rallied on weaker USD and geopolitical tensions. Unemployment rate held at 6.5% vs 6.8% forecast, Ivey PMI remained expansionary at 50.9.
Commodity currencies rose with NZD strengthening. Employment data showed 0.5% QoQ growth vs 0.2% forecast, unemployment rate slightly higher at 5.4% but within expectations. Global Dairy Trade Price Index surged 6.7%.
Swiss market settled flat with cautious trading. Retail sales beat expectations (1.0% MoM vs 0.4% forecast, 2.9% YoY vs 2.1% forecast). Unemployment rate edged up to 3.2% vs 3.1% expected. Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.8.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +150 pips | Isolating USD weakness by longing two commodity currencies that benefit from risk-on sentiment and rising commodity prices, while both show strengthening fundamentals (AUD trade balance beat, NZD employment growth). |
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -100 pips | Isolating JPY strength following political stability and foreign inflows, while EUR and GBP show mixed fundamentals. JPY's election-driven momentum likely to outperform European currencies. |
| CAD/CHF & AUD/CHF | LONG BASKET | Dist: +80 pips | Isolating CHF mixed/weak sentiment against strengthening commodity currencies. CAD and AUD benefit from commodity strength and positive economic data, while CHF shows limited catalysts and rising unemployment. |
| EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -90 pips | Isolating AUD strength against mixed European currencies. AUD benefits from RBA hold, trade surplus, and commodity strength, while EUR faces mixed data and GBP shows limited momentum post-BoE. |
| USD/JPY & USD/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Isolating USD weakness against two currencies with defensive characteristics. JPY strengthened on political stability, CHF shows relative stability. Both likely to outperform weakening USD amid cautious Fed outlook. |
| NZD/CAD & AUD/CAD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +60 pips | Isolating commodity currency divergence - NZD and AUD show stronger momentum (NZD dairy prices surge, AUD trade beat) vs CAD which faces employment contraction (-24.8k jobs). Both antipodean currencies likely to outperform CAD. |