Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 15, 2026 at 12:02:20
ISM Manufacturing PMI beat (52.6 vs 48.2 forecast) suggests resilience, but ISM Services PMI miss (53.8 vs 54.3) and rising jobless claims (231k vs 214k forecast) indicate potential softening. Mixed signals from manufacturing strength vs services moderation.
German Factory Orders surge (7.8% vs -4.2% forecast) positive, but French inflation misses (0.3% YoY vs 0.7% forecast), Eurozone inflation flash misses (1.7% vs 1.8% forecast), and retail sales disappoint (-0.5% MoM vs 0.2% forecast). ECB holds rates steady with dovish undertones.
Yen rises on renewed verbal intervention threats from Tokyo. Household spending disappoints (-2.6% YoY vs 3.2% forecast), but intervention rhetoric outweighs weak data. Monetary base contraction continues (-9.5% YoY).
BoE holds rates steady (3.75% as expected) with unchanged vote split. Halifax house prices beat (1.0% vs 0.0% forecast), but Nationwide housing prices miss (0.3% MoM vs 0.6% forecast). UK GDP expected at 0.2% growth - modest expansion.
Australian market significantly lower following Wall Street cues. Building permits plunge (-14.9% MoM vs -4.0% forecast), AIG manufacturing index weak (-19.4), but RBA holds rates steady at 3.85% as expected. Trade balance beats (3.37B vs 4.9B forecast) but exports growth modest.
USD/CAD rises in New York session. Unemployment rate holds at 6.5% (vs 6.8% forecast) but employment change negative (-24.8k vs -10.0k forecast). Ivey PMI misses (50.9 vs 51.5 forecast). Part-time employment drops sharply (-69.7k).
Building permits miss (-4.6% MoM vs 1.0% forecast), but employment change beats (0.5% QoQ vs 0.2% forecast). Unemployment rate rises slightly (5.4% vs 5.3% forecast). Global dairy trade price index surges (6.7% vs previous 1.5%).
Retail sales beat (1.0% MoM vs 0.4% forecast), procure.ch Manufacturing PMI improves (48.8 vs 46.2 forecast), but unemployment rate ticks up (3.2% vs 3.1% forecast). Foreign exchange reserves decline (711.98B vs 725.38B previous).
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -150 pips | Isolating JPY strength against two European currencies showing mixed/weakening signals. JPY boosted by intervention threats while EUR faces inflation misses and ECB dovishness, GBP faces BoE policy uncertainty. |
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -100 pips | Isolating USD mixed strength against two commodity currencies showing weakness. AUD faces weak domestic data and market selloff, NZD has mixed signals, while USD shows manufacturing resilience despite services moderation. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -80 pips | Isolating CHF relative strength against weakening European peers. EUR shows inflation disappointments, GBP has mixed signals, while CHF benefits from improved manufacturing PMI and retail sales beats. |
| CAD/JPY & AUD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Isolating JPY strength against two weakening commodity currencies. JPY intervention support vs CAD employment weakness and AUD domestic data deterioration. Both commodity currencies face headwinds. |
| GBP/AUD & EUR/AUD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +90 pips | Isolating AUD weakness against European currencies. AUD faces significant domestic weakness (building permits plunge, market selloff) while EUR and GBP show relative stability with some positive data points. |
| USD/CAD & USD/CHF | LONG BASKET | Dist: +70 pips | Isolating USD mixed strength against two currencies showing weakness/mixed signals. USD manufacturing resilience vs CAD employment deterioration and CHF mixed data. Neutralizes specific USD services moderation risk. |