Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 14, 2026 at 12:02:27
Strong January jobs data (+130k vs 70k expected) suggests economic resilience, but upcoming ISM Services PMI (forecast 54.3) and JOLTs (forecast 7.0M) could show cooling. Mixed signals from manufacturing (ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.6 actual vs 48.2 forecast) positive but services sector uncertainty.
French inflation data missed expectations (YoY 0.3% actual vs 0.7% forecast), German retail sales weak (0.1% MoM actual vs 0.5% forecast). Upcoming Eurozone inflation flash (forecast 1.8% YoY) likely to show continued disinflation pressure. ECB expected to hold rates but dovish sentiment growing.
Yen strengthening due to renewed verbal intervention threats from Tokyo. Monetary base contraction (-9.5% YoY) suggests continued BOJ policy normalization. Safe-haven flows as Asian markets show profit-taking signals.
Nationwide housing prices beat expectations (0.3% MoM actual vs 0.6% forecast but better than previous -0.4%). BoE expected to hold rates (3.75% forecast), but MPC vote split uncertain. UK GDP data upcoming (0.2% QoQ forecast) will be key.
Australian market significantly lower, reversing gains. Building permits disappointing (-14.9% MoM actual vs -4.0% forecast). RBA expected to hold rates (3.85% forecast) but weak construction data (Ai Group -19.4) suggests economic slowdown.
USD/CAD rose in recent session. Upcoming employment data forecast weak (-10k jobs vs previous +8.2k). Ivey PMI forecast 51.5 suggests modest expansion but below previous 51.9. Oil price volatility may pressure commodity currency.
Building permits weak (-4.6% MoM actual vs 1.0% forecast), but employment data upcoming (0.2% QoQ forecast). Global Dairy Trade Price Index showed strong gain (6.7% actual). RBNZ likely on hold amid mixed domestic signals.
Retail sales beat expectations (1.0% MoM actual vs 0.4% forecast). Swiss market showed resilience. procure.ch Manufacturing PMI improved (48.8 actual vs 46.2 forecast). Safe-haven appeal as European data weakens.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -150 pips | Isolating JPY strength against two European currencies showing weakness. EUR faces disinflation pressure, GBP has uncertain BoE outlook, while JPY benefits from intervention threats and safe-haven flows. |
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -100 pips | Isolating USD mixed-to-strong sentiment against two commodity currencies showing weakness. AUD hurt by poor building data and market selloff, NZD has mixed fundamentals, while USD has resilient jobs data. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -80 pips | Isolating CHF strength against European peers. CHF benefits from strong retail data and safe-haven status, while EUR and GBP face respective economic headwinds and central bank uncertainty. |
| USD/JPY & USD/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Isolating JPY and CHF strength against USD. Both safe-havens showing strength (JPY intervention, CHF strong data) while USD faces potential cooling in services data and mixed manufacturing signals. |
| AUD/JPY & CAD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -140 pips | Isolating JPY strength against two commodity currencies. AUD weak on domestic data, CAD facing employment concerns, while JPY boosted by intervention and monetary normalization expectations. |
| EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +90 pips | Isolating AUD weakness relative to European currencies. AUD hit by significant market decline and poor construction data, while EUR and GBP have more stable central bank policies despite their own challenges. |