Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 09, 2026 at 12:02:34
Gold surging on weaker dollar ahead of key U.S. jobs data; ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.6) and Services PMI (53.8) show slowing growth momentum; ADP employment (22k) and initial jobless claims (231k) indicate labor market softening; Michigan consumer sentiment (57.3) remains subdued.
Eurozone investor sentiment improved sharply; DAX at two-week high; German factory orders (7.8%) and trade balance (€17.1B) significantly beat forecasts; ECB holding rates steady at 2.15% with hawkish bias; inflation data stable but growth indicators positive.
Yen rising amid BoJ rate hike speculation and risk-off mood; current account surplus (¥728.8B) supports currency despite being down year-on-year; foreign bond investment (¥713.7B) shows capital inflows; household spending weak but BoJ policy shift expectations dominate.
UK job placement downturn slowing and house prices at record high (Halifax +0.7% MoM), but BoE holding rates at 3.75% with dovish tilt (4 MPC members voting for cut); job market remains soft despite improvement; inflation expectations declining.
Commodity currencies weakening amid risk-off sentiment; RBA holding at 3.85% with dovish bias; building permits (-14.9%) and manufacturing index (-19.4) significantly miss forecasts; trade balance (A$3.37B) below expectations despite improvement.
Commodity currency weakness amid risk-off sentiment; unemployment rate steady at 6.5% but employment change (-24.8k) misses forecasts; Ivey PMI (50.9) shows slowing growth; oil prices supportive but broader risk aversion weighing.
Commodity currency under pressure from risk-off sentiment; building permits (-4.6%) miss forecasts; employment growth (0.5%) positive but unemployment rate (5.4%) slightly higher than expected; dairy prices (+6.7%) supportive but global risk aversion dominant.
Retail sales (1.0% MoM) beat forecasts but unemployment rate (3.2%) slightly higher; procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (48.8) shows contraction but improving; foreign exchange reserves declining; safe-haven flows partially offset by domestic data.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD & GBP/USD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +150 pips | Isolating USD weakness by longing two European currencies with divergent central bank policies to hedge against specific Eurozone or UK risks while capturing broad dollar decline. |
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -100 pips | Hedging JPY strength by shorting two European currencies against JPY, as BoJ rate hike expectations contrast with ECB/BoE policy uncertainty, while reducing single-currency exposure. |
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -80 pips | Trading commodity currency weakness against USD despite dollar softness, as AUD and NZD face stronger domestic headwinds (RBA dovishness, risk-off sentiment) that outweigh USD weakness. |
| EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +200 pips | Isolating AUD weakness by longing European currencies against AUD, as Eurozone strength and UK resilience contrast with Australian economic softness and dovish RBA policy. |
| USD/JPY & USD/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Capitalizing on USD weakness against traditional safe-havens, as BoJ rate hike expectations and CHF stability provide dual hedge against dollar decline while reducing JPY-specific risk. |
| CAD/JPY & AUD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -150 pips | Trading commodity currency weakness against JPY strength, as risk-off sentiment and BoJ policy shift expectations create strong momentum for JPY appreciation against resource-linked currencies. |