Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 06, 2026 at 12:02:28
Mixed data with strong durable goods orders (5.3% vs 1.1% forecast) but weak Chicago Fed activity (-0.42 vs -0.2 forecast) and rising jobless claims (209k vs 205k forecast). Trade deficit widened significantly (-56.8B vs -37.0B forecast).
Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected (-0.5% vs -0.2% forecast), German market down 0.5%, and ECB policy uncertainty. German Ifo business climate missed (87.6 vs 88.4 forecast).
Yen weakened due to political unpredictability and fiscal concerns. Leading indicators missed (109.9 vs 110.5 forecast). Retail sales disappointed (-0.9% vs 0.9% forecast).
Construction PMI improved (46.4 vs 42.2 forecast) but still in contraction. Car production beat expectations (17.7% vs 6.7% forecast). Mortgage approvals slightly missed (61.01k vs 64.4k forecast).
RBA hiked rates 25bps to 3.85% (first since Nov 2023). NAB business confidence beat (3.0 vs 2.0 forecast). Inflation data mostly met or beat expectations. Australian dollar strengthened in sessions.
Commodity currency weakened amid risk-off sentiment. Wholesale sales beat (2.1% vs 0.4% forecast) but trade deficit widened (-2.2B vs -0.6B forecast). GDP growth stagnant (0.0% vs 0.2% forecast).
Commodity currency weakened amid risk-off mood. Credit card spending turned negative (-0.3% vs previous 4.7%). ANZ business confidence missed (64.1 vs 73.9 forecast).
Economic sentiment missed (-4.7 vs 5.5 forecast). Trade balance missed (3.0B vs 3.8B forecast). KOF leading indicators slightly missed (102.5 vs 103.2 forecast).
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +150 pips | Isolating USD mixed sentiment by longing two commodity currencies. AUD strengthened by RBA hike and strong data, NZD provides diversification while both benefit from risk-on potential from US-India trade deal. |
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -180 pips | Isolating JPY weakness against two European currencies. JPY weakened due to political/fiscal concerns, while EUR and GBP show mixed but relatively stronger fundamentals. Basket reduces single-currency Europe risk. |
| AUD/CAD & NZD/CAD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +140 pips | Isolating CAD weakness against commodity peers. AUD strengthened by RBA hike, NZD provides diversification, while CAD weakened by risk-off sentiment and poor GDP. Neutralizes single commodity currency exposure. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -100 pips | Isolating CHF mixed sentiment against European currencies. CHF economic data missed expectations, while EUR and GBP show some resilience. Basket reduces exposure to single European economy risks. |
| USD/JPY & AUD/JPY | LONG BASKET | Dist: +200 pips | Isolating JPY weakness against USD and high-yielding AUD. JPY weakened significantly, USD shows mixed but relatively stronger data, AUD boosted by RBA hike. Diversifies away from pure USD exposure. |
| EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -160 pips | Isolating AUD strength against European currencies. AUD strengthened by RBA hike and strong data, while EUR weakened by poor retail sales and ECB uncertainty, GBP shows mixed performance. Reduces single European currency risk. |