Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 24, 2026 at 12:02:17
Mixed signals: GDP growth (1.4%) missed forecast (3.5%) and previous (4.4%), but core PCE inflation (0.4% MoM) exceeded forecast (0.2%). Trade deficit widened (-$70.3B vs -$58.0B forecast). Market uncertainty due to tariff policies mentioned in news.
Mixed data: German ZEW sentiment (58.3) slightly below forecast (61.0), but negotiated wage growth (2.95%) exceeded forecast (2.0%). Industrial production (-1.4% vs -1.2% forecast) weak, but current account (€34.6B) strong. Consumer confidence (-12.2) slightly worse than forecast (-11.7).
Negative data: GDP growth (0.1% QoQ) missed forecast (0.5%), trade balance (-¥1,152.7B) worse than forecast (-¥2,500.0B) but still large deficit. Inflation (1.5% YoY) below forecast (1.9%). Stock market decline mentioned in news due to global uncertainty.
Positive data: Retail sales (1.8% MoM) significantly exceeded forecast (0.2%), unemployment (5.2%) slightly higher than forecast (5.1%) but employment change (52.0k) beat forecast (-40.0k). Inflation (3.0% YoY) met forecast and down from previous (3.4%).
Mixed signals: Employment change (17.8k) missed forecast (25.0k), but unemployment (4.1%) better than forecast (4.2%). Wage growth (0.8% QoQ) met forecast. Stock market modestly lower per news, but no major negative data.
Negative data: Inflation (2.3% YoY) below forecast (2.5%), retail sales (-0.4% MoM) missed forecast (-0.5%). Trade deficit (-$1.31B) better than forecast (-$2.4B) but still negative. Housing starts (238.0k) missed forecast (275.0k).
Mixed data: Retail sales (0.9% QoQ) positive, but trade balance (-$0.52B) missed forecast (-$0.1B). RBNZ held rates steady (2.25% as expected). Food price index (4.6%) exceeded forecast (4.2%).
Limited data: GDP growth (0.2% QoQ) met forecast, trade balance (CHF 3.6B) exceeded forecast (CHF 3.3B). Industrial production (-0.7% YoY) missed forecast (2.1%). No major news impact.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD & AUD/USD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +150 pips | Isolating USD weakness against two currencies with relative strength: GBP (strong retail sales, falling inflation) and AUD (stable employment). Neutralizes specific UK or Australia risks while betting against mixed USD data. |
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | LONG BASKET | Dist: +180 pips | Isolating JPY weakness against two European currencies. JPY has weak GDP, inflation, and trade data, while EUR has mixed but stable data and GBP is strong. Reduces exposure to individual Eurozone or UK events. |
| CAD/JPY & AUD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -140 pips | Isolating JPY weakness against two commodity currencies, but CAD is weakening (poor inflation, retail sales) and AUD is mixed, making this a cautious short on JPY. Diversifies away from single commodity currency risk. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | LONG BASKET | Dist: +100 pips | Isolating CHF weakness against two European majors. CHF has mixed data (weak industrial production) and no clear strength, while EUR and GBP have relatively better fundamentals. Neutralizes Eurozone or UK-specific shocks. |
| NZD/USD & CAD/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Isolating USD mixed sentiment against two currencies with weaknesses: NZD (trade deficit) and CAD (poor inflation, retail sales). Bets on USD resilience despite mixed data, while diversifying commodity currency exposure. |
| AUD/NZD & CAD/NZD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +90 pips | Isolating NZD weakness against AUD and CAD. NZD has trade deficit issues, while AUD and CAD have mixed but potentially stronger relative positions. Reduces single-currency risk in the commodity bloc. |