Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 10, 2026 at 12:02:36
ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations (52.6 vs 48.2 forecast), but recent news shows 'U.S. Dollar Falls Against Most Majors' and upcoming key data (ISM Services PMI, JOLTs, consumer sentiment) create uncertainty. Mixed signals from strong manufacturing but weaker services and consumer data.
German Retail Sales missed expectations (0.1% vs 0.5% forecast), but French inflation data came in lower than expected (0.3% YoY vs 0.7% forecast). European markets are higher (CAC 40, DAX up) on tech rebound, but economic data shows mixed picture with weak retail and inflation.
Japanese stocks surging (Nikkei up 3.89%), monetary base contraction less severe than expected (-9.5% vs -10.0% forecast), and political stability after election win. Strong risk-on sentiment in Asia benefiting JPY as safe-haven flows reverse.
Multiple news reports of 'Pound Falls' due to political uncertainty and BoE rate cut expectations. Nationwide housing prices missed expectations (0.3% MoM vs 0.6% forecast). Clear negative sentiment with political and monetary policy headwinds.
Household spending declined for first time since 2024, but building permits data mixed (Prel MoM -14.9% vs -4.0% forecast, but YoY Prel 0.4% vs 9.8% forecast). Australian market extending gains on tech rebound, but consumer weakness evident.
Upcoming unemployment data expected to show 6.5% (same as previous), but Ivey PMI forecast at 51.5 vs previous 51.9. No positive catalysts in news, and commodity-linked currencies under pressure from mixed global growth outlook.
Building permits missed badly (-4.6% vs 1.0% forecast), but employment data upcoming (0.5% QoQ forecast vs 0.0% previous). Dairy price index showed strong 6.7% gain. Mixed with weak housing but strong commodity exports.
Retail Sales beat expectations (1.0% MoM vs 0.4% forecast), but manufacturing PMI at 48.8 remains contractionary. Unemployment rate expected stable at 3.1%. Neutral to slightly positive domestic data offset by manufacturing weakness.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY & AUD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -150 pips | Isolating JPY strength against two weakening/mixed currencies. GBP has clear political/rate cut headwinds, AUD has consumer weakness, while JPY benefits from risk-on Asian equity rally and political stability. |
| EUR/GBP & CHF/GBP | LONG BASKET | Dist: +100 pips | Isolating GBP weakness against two European peers. GBP has multiple negative catalysts while EUR and CHF show relatively better stability with mixed but not decisively negative data. |
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | LONG BASKET | Dist: +80 pips | Isolating USD mixed sentiment against commodity currencies. USD shows weakness in recent price action despite strong manufacturing data, while AUD/NZD have export strength (dairy prices up 6.7% for NZD) and RBA holding rates steady. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -90 pips | Isolating CHF relative strength against European peers. CHF retail sales beat expectations while EUR faces inflation misses and GBP has clear negative sentiment. Swiss stability contrasts with European uncertainty. |
| CAD/JPY & AUD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -120 pips | Isolating JPY strength against commodity currencies. JPY benefits from Asian equity rally and political stability, while CAD faces unemployment concerns and AUD shows consumer weakness. Risk-on flows favor JPY over commodity pairs. |
| GBP/AUD & GBP/NZD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -110 pips | Isolating GBP weakness against commodity currencies. GBP has clear negative catalysts (political uncertainty, rate cut expectations) while AUD/NZD have export/commodity support and less severe headwinds. |